Commodities Buzz: IGC Slightly Increases Forecast For World Grains Production

The International Grains Council or IGC stated yesterday that the forecast for world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2021/22 is 5 million (m) tonnes (t) higher m/m (month-on-month), at 2,289m, up by 3% y/y (year-on-year). Given larger than previously estimated opening stocks and increased production, and with the figure for consumption unchanged m/m, the outlook for global stocks at the end of 2021/22 is boosted by 10m t m/m, mainly for maize. Including increased wheat shipments, the forecast for global total grains trade (Jul/Jun) is up by 2m t m/m, to 416m. Despite a further upgrade for Chinese feed demand, global rice consumption in 2020/21 is placed 3m t lower m/m to reflect a downgrade for India, linked to historic data revisions. Taking account of a higher figure for carry-ins, the forecast for stocks is lifted by 8m t m/m. This feeds through to an increased projection of world reserves in 2021/22, raised by 10m t m/m, to a peak of 182m (+3m y/y). Trade in 2022 is predicted 1m t higher m/m, at 48m (+1m).

With a sharp rise in maize output anticipated, but with increases for wheat and sorghum as well, global total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2021/22 is forecast to climb by 3% y/y, to 2,289m t. Led by a jump in maize use amid more ample supplies, world total grains consumption is expected to expand by 3%, to 2,288m t. After four successive annual contractions, world stocks are expected to broadly stabilise, as falls for wheat, barley and oats are seen being balanced by build-ups of maize, sorghum and rye. Grains trade is predicted to shrink by 11m t y/y, to 416m, mainly linked to smaller shipments of maize and barley.

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