The Mutual Fund Show: Does Buy And Hold Always Work?

Vijay, what do you mean by the corpus didn’t last? Did people stop investing, and then 20 years post that date, how did you come about this one-third of the instances?

VIJAY MANTRI: We assumed that somebody started with a 1 crore corpus and suppose somebody started on April 1, 1980. As on this day, the person has taken out Rs 23 crore in the last 40 years, but the corpus is still more than Rs 100 crore. If somebody started from April 1, 1980. Suppose somebody started on any date with any other amount of the corpus and the amount taken out could differ, so I call it a ‘great year’, and there are some 25 great years. 1982 and 1990 those were years which if you’d invested and then taken money out then still the corpus would be anything between some 23-100-crore-plus. These were the great years. In between, there were two years, 1986 and 1991 where the corpus has finished by now, but the corpus has served you for 27-28 years. So, if anything, it lasted more than 20 years. That is great because you planned for 20 years. So, year 1986 and year 1991, were the periods where suppose you started at that time, then the corpus lasted 27-28 years, but suppose you started on April 1, 1992 or 1993 or 1994 or 1995 or 1996, or 1997, or 1998, or 1999, or year 2000 or year 2006, 2007 and 2008, then the corpus has not lasted 20 years. In some of the incidences the corpus has just lasted seven years. Suppose you started in on April 1, 1992, then your entire corpus got over in October 1999. So, it varied from seven years to 17 years—during that period from 1992 till 2000. Then again, you had a great period of 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 and even to a certain extent 2006 but suppose you started in 2007 and 2008, then in those two years of a starting period, the corpus got over in around 12 years. So, it didn’t last 20 years. We’re not talking about Harshad Mehta days of 1992, where the market ran crazy valuations, we are talking about the current market, just not 10-12 years back and even if you see data for 2010 and 2011, if you started a corpus in 2010, the total corpus available to you for 2010 or 2011 is around Rs 34-50 lakh. It means that you just covered 10 years of expenses. You have 10 more years to go. The Rs 8 lakh today, would have been Rs 11-12 lakh per annum right now. So perhaps the corpus may last four to five years. So, as recent as 2010-11, the corpus would not last more than 15-16 years. So, you could safely presume that out of 41 years, there are 14 years in which the corpus has not lasted 20 full years. It means that around 34% of the time, the buy and hold strategy has not worked when you have to fulfill your retirement needs.