October 28, 2024

DXY: Bullish momentum but overbought – OCBC

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US Dollar (USD) rose, alongside the rise in UST yields. Dollar Index (DXY) was last at 104.26 levels. US data, including durable goods orders, Uni of Michigan sentiment surprised to the upside, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Daily momentum remains bullish

“RSI eased lower from overbought conditions. While the recent run up continues to look stretched technically, the move higher may still extend in the interim. That said, we do also caution that the subsequent snapback may also be sharp, on any triggers or data surprises. Resistance at 104.60 (61.8% fibo), 105.20 levels. Support at 103.80 levels (200 DMA, 50% fibo), 102.90/103.20 levels (21, 100 DMAs, 38.2% fibo retracement of 2023 high to 2024 low) and 101.90 (50 DMA).”

“This week marks the start of a busy, eventful 2 weeks with JOLTS job openings, consumer sentiment (Tuesday); ADP employment (Wednesday); core PCE (Thursday) and NFP (Friday) before US elections (5 November) and FOMC (7 November) the following week. Between now and then, we should see 2-way trades in USD.”

“While top side may look stretched technically, any pullback may also be shallow due to interests to buy USD (proxy for Trump hedges) ahead of US elections. Traditional polls remain too close to call while prediction market pointed to Trump lead.”

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