Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A 0.99%) (BRK.B 0.95%) has been one of Apple‘s (AAPL 0.59%) largest shareholders in recent years. Buffett originally invested in Apple in late 2016, and by the end of 2023, Buffett’s Berkshire held $174 billion worth of shares.
But something seems to have changed Buffett’s thinking toward the Apple investment. As of the third quarter, Berkshire’s Apple stake had been cut to 300 million shares, down from over 905 million shares in 2023. Earlier this year, Buffett said that, “unless something really extraordinary happens,” Berkshire would still own Apple shares when he was no longer CEO.
It’s worth noting that other billionaire investors were buying Apple shares in Q3, including Ole Andreas Halvorsen of Viking Global Investors and John Armitage of Egerton Capital. These mixed signals beg the question: Is Apple still an attractive investment, or should you follow Buffett’s lead and take some profits?
Apple’s growth prospects
Apple’s total sales grew just 2% year over year in fiscal 2024 (which ended in September), but many investors have plowed into the stock this year after Apple unveiled new artificial intelligence (AI) features for its devices. The company just released Apple Intelligence in October, but investors are expecting improving sales growth, and the stock price has climbed nearly 19% year to date despite sluggish sales growth for Apple’s device lineup.
The AI update is seen as a major catalyst for iPhone specifically, which generates over half the company’s revenue. Investors expect more iPhone users to upgrade to the latest products that have more powerful processors capable of running Apple Intelligence. The AI features require an Apple device with at least an M1 processor or later version. Higher demand for Apple devices would also fuel more demand for services, which generate double the gross profit margin compared to devices.
It’s for these reasons that Wall Street analysts expect Apple’s annual revenue growth to improve to over 5% in fiscal 2025 before accelerating to over 8% in fiscal 2026. Earnings per share is expected to grow slightly faster at nearly 10% on annualized basis, given that higher-margin services now contribute at a higher rate to Apple’s total sales.
What about the stock’s valuation?
Apple has an incredibly strong brand and a loyal customer base. Its installed base of active devices reached another all-time high in the most recent quarter. Buffett cited the sticky relationship between the product and customer as a big reason why he originally invested in Apple, and if anything, Apple Intelligence will make the relationship even stickier. Given his stated views in the past, it is quite surprising that Buffett has suddenly decided to dump over half of Berkshire’s investment.
Buffett is not known to sell his winners just because they are a little expensive, but Apple’s valuation is starting to look somewhat frothy. The shares fetch a high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 37, compared to the S&P 500 average P/E of 30. At these levels, an investor shouldn’t expect Apple’s P/E to move higher, which means future returns will have to come from the company’s earnings growth.
At the Berkshire shareholders’ meeting in May, Buffett mentioned that under current market conditions, he didn’t mind building a larger cash position. That might still explain why he has continued to sell Apple, which remains Berkshire’s largest investment even after dumping over half the position. Other billionaires that are buying the stock are clearly making the bet that Apple is going to report better earnings growth than the consensus estimate and justify the current valuation.
Investors can find other large-cap tech companies growing earnings faster than Apple that trade at lower valuations and therefore might offer better return prospects. For this reason, I wouldn’t call the stock a buy right now, but if I already hold shares, I wouldn’t follow Buffett and sell either, since he may have unique reasons for selling, given the monumental size of the investment at the beginning of the year.
For now, I would call Apple a hold, as its push into AI could surprise to the upside, as great businesses usually do.
John Ballard has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple and Berkshire Hathaway. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.