If you’re bullish on Bitcoin but want more than just price appreciation, the MSTY ETF might be the most interesting option on the table.
MSTY (YieldMax MSTR Option Income Strategy ETF) is a covered call fund on MicroStrategy, a company whose stock is effectively a leveraged bet on Bitcoin.
Since launching in 2024, MSTY has dished out massive monthly income yielding over 150% in its first year. But what’s next?
Key Points
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MSTY sells covered calls on MicroStrategy and turns Bitcoin-related volatility into monthly income, yielding over 100% annually in strong markets.
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Even if MSTY’s share price doesn’t rise dramatically, reinvesting high early-year payouts can lead to explosive compounding.
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If Bitcoin crashes, MSTY’s NAV could get hit hard, but early high distributions reinvested at lower prices can still produce a cumulative return of +349% by 2030.
Bitcoin to $150K+ and a $32,000 Payout
In a strong BTC bull market driven by institutional adoption and ETF tailwinds MSTR could 5x from ~$300 today to $1,500 by 2030.
Since MSTY sells covered calls on MSTR, it won’t capture all that upside. But in return, it generates huge income as traders pay hefty premiums for upside exposure.
Assuming payouts hover around $18–$22/year in 2025–26, then gradually decline to $15–$12 by 2030, the compounding effect of reinvesting those monthly dividends becomes enormous.
Even if MSTY’s price only climbs modestly (say from ~$20 to $42 by 2030), reinvested yields could grow a $1,000 investment into more than $32,000, a staggering 3,000%+ total return.
Sideways BTC, Still 6.75x Returns
Now say BTC trades rangebound, between $40K–$100K, and MSTR settles in the $300–$450 range.
Volatility and thus option income fades over time. Monthly payouts shrink steadily, perhaps from $1.30/month to $0.30 by 2030.
Still, thanks to reinvestment early on while yields are high, MSTY could turn $1,000 into around $6,750 by 2030.
In this scenario, MSTY outperforms simply holding MSTR—because even with a flat NAV, the income is reinvested and compounds aggressively in the early years.
Bitcoin Crashes, Income Saves the Day
Suppose Bitcoin tanks toward $20K–$25K by 2026 and stays weak for years. MSTR drops to ~$100, and MSTY’s NAV dives too—possibly to $8 by 2026.
Option income dries up as volatility fades. But early-year payouts remain high at $15 in 2025 before collapsing.
Even in this worst-case, reinvested dividends, especially at depressed share prices, help an investor claw back. The forecast? After initial losses, cumulative returns turn positive by 2027 and reach +349% by 2030. That’s ~$4,490 on a $1,000 investment.
What’s The Big Picture?
MSTY is a high-octane yield machine built on top of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin bet. It thrives on volatility, rewards early re-investors, and even in a crash, can deliver gains.
The trade-off? You cap your upside in big rallies and suffer in downturns. But for income-focused investors who believe in BTC’s long-term volatility, MSTY might offer one of the most powerful compounding engines available.
Yield > Hype? With MSTY, maybe so.