China’s Economy in April 2025: Resilient Exports and Investment Defy US Tariffs

China’s April economic indicators, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on May 19, 2025, highlight the economy’s continued resilience amid intensifying global uncertainty and external shocks.

Foreign trade beat expectations, with strong export growth to markets such as the EU and ASEAN helping to offset the sharp decline in shipments to the US, which were heavily impacted by the latest round of tariffs.

While several key indicators, such as industrial added value and retail sales, point to a modest deceleration in growth momentum, there were encouraging signs in areas like equipment investment and high-tech manufacturing, suggesting continued structural upgrading. 

Nonetheless, persistent challenges remain. Core inflation remains subdued, underscoring weak domestic demand and ongoing deflationary pressure. In addition, private sector sentiment and foreign investment flows continue to show signs of caution, reflecting lingering concerns over the external environment and domestic structural transitions. 

In this article, we break down the latest economic and trade data and assess the broader policy backdrop shaping China’s growth trajectory in 2025. 

Foreign trade remains resilient despite US tariffs 

China’s foreign trade showed steady momentum in April 2025, despite mounting pressure from US tariffs on Chinese goods, which peaked at 145 percent. According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, total trade in April reached RMB 3.6 trillion (US$532.5 billion), up 5.6 percent year-on-year, a slight slowdown from the 6 percent growth recorded in March. 

Exports rose to RMB 2.3 trillion (US$314.1 billion), marking a 9.3 percent year-on-year increase, though easing from March’s 13.5 percent growth. In US dollar terms, exports grew by 8.1 percentm, down from 12.4 percent in March but significantly outperforming economists’ forecasts of just 1.9 percent.

Imports totaled RMB 1.6 trillion (US$218.4 billion), rising 0.8 percent year-on-year and rebounding from a 3.5 percent contraction in March. In US dollar terms, imports declined 0.27 percent, narrowing significantly from the 4.5 year-on-year percent drop recorded in March. 

From January to April 2025, China’s total trade amounted to RMB 14.1 trillion (US$2 trillion), an increase of 2.4 percent year-on-year. Exports climbed 7.5 percent to RMB 8.4 trillion (US$1.2 trillion), while imports declined 4.2 percent to RMB 5.7 trillion (US$796.9 billion). 

The negative impact of US tariffs was mitigated by stronger exports to other key markets, particularly the EU and ASEAN. While exports to the US fell by 21 percent year-on-year, shipments to the EU rose by 8.3 percent, with exports to Germany alone surging 20.4 percent. Exports to ASEAN markets expanded by 20.78 percent, with Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia each recording growth above 20 percent. 

These figures suggest Chinese exporters are increasingly redirecting goods to other major markets to compensate for reduced demand from the US. 

The steep drop in US-bound exports in April marked a sharp reversal from March, when exports to the US grew 9.1 percent year-on-year, driven by a surge in pre-tariff orders from US importers.

From January to April, general trade (as opposed to processing trade) rose by 0.6 percent year-on-year and accounted for 64 percent of China’s total trade. Processing trade and bonded logistics trade also showed solid growth, increasing by 6.6 percent and 7 percent respectively. 

Trade by private enterprises grew 6.8 percent year-on-year, contributing 56.9 percent of the total, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from the same period last year. Foreign-invested enterprises saw their imports and exports rise by 1.9 percent, accelerating by 1.5 percentage points compared to the first quarter. 

Exports of mechanical and electrical products rose 9.5 percent, making up over 60 percent of total exports. Within this category, exports of automatic data processing equipment and components increased by 5.6 percent, integrated circuits by 14.7 percent, and automobiles by 4 percent. 

On the import side, crude oil imports rose by 0.5 percent, but volumes of iron ore, coal, natural gas, soybeans, and refined oil all declined. Except for refined oil, the average import prices for these commodities fell across the board. 

April economic indicators: Strong growth in high-tech and services industries 

Industrial growth led by high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors 

China’s industrial sector maintained solid momentum in April 2025, driven by robust performance in equipment and high-tech manufacturing.

The total value-added output of industrial enterprises above the designated size (those with an annual main business income of RMB 20 million (US$2.8 million) grew by 6.1 percent year-on-year in April, accelerating 0.22 percent from March. From January to April, the year-on-year growth rate reached 6.4 percent. Among the three major sectors, manufacturing led with a 6.6 percent year-on-year increase in April, followed by mining (up 5.7 percent) and utilities (up 2.1 percent). 

Key subsectors also reported substantial gains. Equipment manufacturing grew by 9.8 percent year-on-year, while high-tech manufacturing increased by 10 percent, with both fields outpacing the overall industrial growth by 3.7 and 3.9 percentage points, respectively. Production of new and emerging technologies also saw strong expansion, including: 

• 3D printing equipment (up 60.7 percent year-on-year);
• Industrial robots (up 51.5 percent year-on-year); and
• New energy vehicles (up 38.9 percent year-on-year).

Private enterprises led industrial growth with a 6.7 percent increase in value-added output. Joint-stock companies rose 6.6 percent, and foreign-invested enterprises (including those from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) grew by 3.9 percent. State-owned enterprises, in contrast, reported slower growth at 2.9 percent. 

However, sentiment was mixed: the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 49 percent in April, indicating a slight contraction, while the business expectation index reached 52.1 percent, signaling cautious optimism. 

Service sector expands steadily with strong gains in modern services

China’s service sector continued its recovery in April 2025, with robust contributions from modern service industries. 

The services production index rose 6 percent year-on-year in April. High-performing sectors included: 

• Information transmission, software, and IT services (up 10.4 percent year-on-year);
• Leasing and business services (up 8.9 percent year-on-year);
• Wholesale and retail trade (up 6.8 percent year-on-year); and
• Finance (up 6.1 percent).

These outpaced the average service industry growth, highlighting a shift toward knowledge-intensive and technology-driven services. Over the January to April period, the services production index grew 5.9 percent year-on-year, while the revenue of large service enterprises expanded by 7 percent in the first quarter. 

The services business activity index stood at 50.1 percent in April, showing modest expansion. Sectors such as air transportation, telecommunications, internet services, and insurance maintained high activity levels with readings above 55 percent, indicating strong business confidence in these fields. 

Consumer demand rises, bolstered by upgrade-focused consumption 

Retail sales in China posted steady gains in April 2025, with strong performance in goods related to consumer upgrades and the ongoing “trade-in” stimulus policy. 

Total retail sales of consumer goods reached RMB 3.72 trillion (US$512.4 billion) in April, up 5.1 percent year-on-year and 0.24 percent from March. Of the total, goods retail accounted for RMB 3.3 trillion (US$457.8 billion), up 5.1 percent, and catering revenue reached RMB 417 billion (US$57.8 billion), up 5.2 percent. Specific product categories benefiting from government-led consumption incentives saw particularly high growth: 

• Household appliances and audio-visual equipment (up 38.8 percent);
• Cultural and office supplies (up 33.5 percent);
• Furniture (up 26.9 percent); and
• Communication equipment (up 19.9 percent).

Between January and April, total retail sales rose 4.7 percent year-on-year to RMB 16.18 trillion (US$2.2 trillion). Online retail also expanded, with total online sales reaching RMB 4.74 trillion (US$657.5 billion), up 7.7 percent, including a 5.8 percent increase in physical goods. Online sales of goods accounted for 24.3 percent of the total. Retail sales of services rose 5.1 percent during the same period. 

Investment expands, driven by manufacturing and high-tech sectors 

Fixed asset investment (FAI), which reflects investor confidence and future productive capacity, reached RMB 14.7 trillion (US$2 trillion) in the first four months of 2025, marking a 4 percent increase from the previous year. Excluding real estate development, FAI grew by 8 percent. FAI in April alone saw a modest month-on-month increase of 0.10 percent.

Manufacturing FAI led with an 8.8 percent increase, followed by infrastructure, which increased 5.8 percent year-on-year. Real estate investment continued to pull down the overall FAI figure, declining 10.3 percent. 

Investment in the primary and secondary industries rose 13.2 percent and 11.7 percent, respectively, while the tertiary sector declined slightly by 0.2 percent.  

High-tech sectors were key growth drivers, with notable gains in: 

• Information services (up 40.6 percent);
• Computer and office equipment manufacturing (up 28.9 percent);
• Aerospace manufacturing (up 23.9 percent); and
• Professional technical services (up 17.6 percent).

Private investment grew by 0.2 percen year-on-year, but excluding real estate, it posted a healthier 5.8 percent increase. Meanwhile, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) recorded a 6.2 percent rise in FAI, underscoring continued government-led support for long-term industrial development. Domestic enterprises recorded a 3.9 percent increase in FAI, while investment from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan enterprises surged by 9.2 percent. In contrast, FAI from foreign-invested enterprises (FIEs) fell sharply by 11.4 percent, signaling caution or retreat among international investors amid a complex external environment. 

Consumer prices remain subdued amid weak demand 

China’s consumer prices were largely flat in April, with a slight year-on-year decrease signaling continued soft demand. The national consumer price index (CPI) declined by 0.1 percent year-on-year, but edged up 0.1 percent from March. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.5 percent year-on-year, indicating relatively stable underlying inflation. 

Food, tobacco, and alcohol prices rose 0.3 percent, with notable shifts including: 

• A 5 percent drop in fresh vegetable prices;
• A 1.4 percent decline in grain prices;
• A 5 percent increase in pork prices; and
• A 5.2 percent rise in fresh fruit prices.

Clothing and housing prices grew modestly, up 1.3 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively. Prices in transportation and communication fell 3.9 percent. 

From January to April, the average CPI fell 0.1 percent year-on-year, reflecting continued deflationary pressure. 

Meanwhile, producer prices remained deeply in negative territory. In April, the producer price index (PPI) dropped 2.7 percent year-on-year and 0.4 percent month-on-month. Input prices for producers also fell by 2.7 percent compared to April 2024. Over the first four months of 2025, both producer and input prices declined by 2.4 percent year-on-year. 

China’s macro policy mix shows effect amid global uncertainty 

In response to intensifying global headwinds, including rising US tariffs, China’s central authorities launched a coordinated set of monetary and financial policies aimed at stabilizing economic expectations and supporting innovation-driven development. Led by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the 10-point policy package focused on injecting long-term liquidity, guiding market interest rates downward, and channeling credit to key sectors such as high-tech manufacturing, rural development, and consumer services.

The policy mix included reserve requirement cuts, structural interest rate reductions, targeted refinancing tools, and risk-sharing mechanisms for tech financing. These were complemented by new regulatory measures to improve financing for SMEs, private firms, real estate, and foreign trade enterprises affected by global trade frictions.

According to Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the NBS, these macro-level policy measures have already shown signs of effectiveness. Despite a more challenging and uncertain international environment in April, the economy continued to expand steadily, with industrial production, services, consumption, and external trade all maintaining stable growth momentum. 

Fu emphasized that the macro policy package has not only helped cushion the impact of external shocks but also highlighted the resilience and adaptability of China’s economy. He noted that stronger domestic circulation, coordinated policy implementation, and support for new growth drivers have all contributed to sustaining economic stability. 

Looking ahead, Fu reiterated that while global uncertainties remain, China’s robust economic foundation, policy agility, and structural upgrades position the country well to manage risks and maintain stable, high-quality development. 

The April economic figures provide cautious optimism for the months ahead, with the outlook already appearing more favorable as the US and China deescalate the trade war and policy support continues to gain traction. 

The strong trade performance will also serve as a potential bargaining chip for China in any renewed trade negotiations with the Trump administration, offering leverage to counter further protectionist measures or push for de-escalation. 

Nonetheless, the global situation remains complex and unpredictable. It is still possible that the US could impose additional tariffs or expand restrictions on Chinese goods and technology, which would pose renewed risks to export growth and external confidence.