Stock market, US-India trade deal: What share investors should know

Stock market indices Sensex and Nifty traded sideways on Monday, with investor sentiment subdued ahead of the looming June 9 deadline for Trump-era tariffs. Markets globally are expected to be volatile going into the July 9 deadline when the 90-day pause on President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs expires for non-China trading partners. 

Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal recently said India refuses to be rushed into trade deals. “An FTA should be a win-win. India never negotiates trade deals based on deadlines,” he told reporters last week.

Trump indicated on Friday that he has signed letters to 12 countries outlining various tariff levels with the “take it or leave it” offers to be sent out on Monday. The tariff hikes, however, are scheduled to take effect on August 1. 

“There is also a possibility of some more trade agreements announced, as per news reports (such as with India). The near-term outlook will likely hinge on several key factors: (a) Extent to which larger trading partners are included in such letters such as the EU, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, India, Thailand, Malaysia, etc,” Nomura said.

The foreign brokerage said it is to be seen whether the EU is also included. There is also the risk of retaliation which may be a more negative risk event for global markets, it said.

Besides, eyes would be on rate of tariffs. Trump had floated a 10-70 per cent rate, which implies some may get an even higher rate than the “reciprocal tariffs”.

Trump recently lashed out at Brics nations, saying the US would impose of an additional 10 per cent tariff on any country aligning with the group’s “anti-American policies.” He clarified there would be no exceptions. 

Nomura said a more distant implementation date might leave scope for some last minute trade negotiations, and maintain market optimism for potential resolutions or extensions.

For India, some reports suggested that the India-US Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) has moved a step closer to becoming a reality after receiving approval from US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. The deal now awaits final approval from President Donald Trump, as per the report.

VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments said concerns surrounding a US-India trade deal and the fallout of SEBI’s report on Jane Street will be influencing market movements.

“There are reports of a possible interim trade deal between US and India before the July 9th tariff deadline. If that happens, that would be a positive,” he said.

Jane Street impact, Q1 results

Meanwhile, Vijayakumar said the regulatory action on Jane Street and its implications will be closely watched by the market. The volume of derivative trading is likely to take a hit impacting stock exchanges and some brokerages, he said.

Dinesh Thakkar, Managing Director, Chairman and the Founder of Angel One said retail participation in equity derivatives has surged to over 40 per cent in 2025 from just 2 per cent in 2018. This influx fuelled liquidity, volatility, and, with it, opportunity. Proprietary trading desks thrive in such environments, leveraging high-frequency and algorithmic strategies. he noted.

India’s market opportunity is structural and not cyclical and certainly not dependent on any one firm, he said adding that: “SEBI’s clampdown will bring sharper compliance and more robust governance thus, strengthening market integrity and raising the bar for all. Players may change, but India’s capital market continues to deepen, diversify, and grow.”

Meanwhile, commentary on demand environment and deal pipeline would be key for TCS, Centrum Broking said in its Q1 preview note. This brokerage expect CC revenue degrowth of 2.8 per cent QoQ for TCS, led by ramp down of BSNL deal, with cross currency tailwind of around 180 basis points. It expects EBIT margin to decline 19 bps QoQ led by decline in revenues. Profit is seen at Rs 11,862 crore, down 1.5 per cent YoY.