Mortgage Rates Have Ticked Up After a 5-Week Decline—Is It a Blip or the Start of a Shift?

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Key Takeaways

  • Though mortgage rates have been falling since a mid-May surge, they’ve now inched up a bit.
  • The increase so far is minor, keeping 30-year rates within just 6 basis points of a recent three-month low.
  • 30-year rates ended last week at a 6.82% average—30 basis points below the May 23 peak of 7.12%.
  • A $350,000 loan at today’s 30-year rate equals a $2,286 monthly payment—$71 less than six weeks ago, or $852 in annual savings.
  • See our full tables below for more rates and payments by loan type.

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Mortgage Rates Have Edged Up From a Springtime Low

In mid-May, mortgage rates spiked as the bond market reacted to news that President Trump’s proposed tax bill had gained momentum in Congress. Concerns that the legislation could widen the federal deficit pushed 10-year Treasury yields sharply higher—triggering a jump in mortgage rates.

Over the following five weeks, however, homebuyers got some relief, as mortgage rates steadily declined across nearly every new purchase loan type. Most averages fell to their lowest levels since early April—and in some cases, even March.

This past week, mortgage rates began to inch back up. Fortunately, the increases so far have been modest, keeping most loan type averages close to recent lows.

Below, we break down how rates have changed over the past week—and how they compare to the May spike—for each new purchase loan average. We then take a closer look at 30-year, 15-year, and jumbo 30-year fixed-rate loans.

Changes in New Purchase Mortgage Rates by Loan Type

Mortgage Type May 23 peak June 27 July 3 Last week’s change Change vs. May peak
30-Year Fixed 7.12% 6.76% 6.82% + 0.06 – 0.36
FHA 30-Year Fixed 7.37% 7.55% 7.55% + 0.00 + 0.18
VA 30-Year Fixed 6.73% 6.44% 6.50% + 0.06 – 0.29
20-Year Fixed 7.00% 6.41% 6.54% + 0.13 – 0.59
15-Year Fixed 6.10% 5.72% 5.82% + 0.10 – 0.38
FHA 15-Year Fixed 6.78% 6.76% 6.76% + 0.00 – 0.02
10-Year Fixed 6.16% 5.70% 5.71% + 0.01 – 0.46
7/6 ARM 7.44% 7.36% 7.41% + 0.05 – 0.08
5/6 ARM 7.41% 7.32% 7.44% + 0.12 – 0.09
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 7.10% 6.78% 6.91% + 0.13 – 0.32
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 6.99% 6.79% 6.89% + 0.10 – 0.20
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 7.66% 7.11% 7.32% + 0.21 – 0.55
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 7.45% 7.18% 7.23% + 0.05 – 0.27

30-Year Rates Rise—But Remain Well Below Their May High

After climbing to a weekly average of 7.12% on May 23, rates on new 30-year purchase loans dropped 36 basis points over the next five weeks. The resulting 6.76% average on June 27 was the lowest level for 30-year rates in almost three months.

Rates have now inched up, however. With a modest increase last week of 6 basis points, the flagship average moved to 6.82% on July 3. That’s still 30 basis points below the May peak, however.

Where 30-year rates go from here remains to be seen, as markets digest Friday’s passage of President Trump’s sweeping tax bill. For now, though, early data shows the 30-year average holding roughly steady.

What’s the 30-Year Rate in Your State?

We publish national rate averages for all major loan types every business day—plus 30-year averages for every state. Right now, the lowest state rates range from 6.56% to 6.77%.

15-Year Rates Climb Back to Upper-5% Territory

Rates on 15-year new purchase loans fell a dramatic 38 basis points over five weeks, down to a June 27 average of 5.72% that was the lowest since late February. But this past week, 15-year rates added back 10 basis points, rising to a 5.82% average.

Jumbo 30-Year Mortgages Climbed an Eight of a Point Last Week

Rates on jumbo 30-year new purchase loans declined 32 basis points after notching a 7.10% average on May 23, falling to 6.78% on June 27. But the average is now up 13 basis points over the past week to 6.91%.

What’s a Jumbo Loan?

A jumbo mortgage exceeds the loan limits set for conforming loans by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—$806,500 for most U.S. single-family homes in 2025, and up to $1,209,750 in high-cost areas.

Here’s What You’d Pay Each Month With Today’s Mortgage Rates

To show how recent rate changes affect monthly payments, the tables below break down principal-and-interest costs for various loan amounts using 30-year, 15-year, and jumbo 30-year fixed-rate new purchase mortgages.

Monthly Mortgage Payments for 30-Year Loans

National average rate $250,000 $350,000 $450,000 $550,000 $650,000
Fri, May 23 7.12% $1,683 $2,357 $3,030 $3,704 $4,377
Thu, Jul 3 6.82% $1,633 $2,286 $2,940 $3,593 $4,246
6-week change – 0.36 – $50 – $71 – $90 – $111 – $131
Annual savings $600 $852 $1,080 $1,332 $1,572
Monthly payment amounts shown include principal and interest only, not insurance or taxes.

Monthly Mortgage Payments for 15-Year Loans

National average rate $250,000 $350,000 $450,000 $550,000 $650,000
Fri, May 23 6.10% $2,123 $2,972 $3,822 $4,671 $5,520
Thu, Jul 3 5.82% $2,085 $2,920 $3,754 $4,588 $5,422
6-week change – 0.38 – $38 – $52 – $68 – $83 – $98
Annual savings $456 $624 $816 $996 $1,176
Monthly payment amounts shown include principal and interest only, not insurance or taxes.

By definition, jumbo 30-year mortgages are larger loans. So below we’ve run our calculations on loan amounts of $800,000 to $1.2 million.

Monthly Mortgage Payments for Jumbo 30-Year Loans

National average rate $800,000 $900,000 $1,000,000 $1,100,000 $1,200,000
Fri, May 23 7.10% $5,376 $6,048 $6,720 $7,392 $8,064
Thu, Jul 3 6.91% $5,274 $5,933 $6,593 $7,252 $7,911
6-week change – 0.32 – $102 – $115 – $127 – $140 – $153
Annual savings $1,224 $1,380 $1,524 $1,680 $1,836
Monthly payment amounts shown include principal and interest only, not insurance or taxes.

How We Track Mortgage Rates

The national and state averages cited above are provided as is via the Zillow Mortgage API, assuming a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 80% (i.e., a down payment of at least 20%) and an applicant credit score in the 680–739 range. The resulting rates represent what borrowers should expect when receiving quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates. © Zillow, Inc., 2025. Use is subject to the Zillow Terms of Use.

Article Sources

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  1. Federal Housing Finance Agency. “FHFA Announces Conforming Loan Limit Values for 2025.”

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