After an unusually good run driven by a combination of panic buying and investors flocking to safety, the price of gold is up by 75% compared to one year ago. XRP (XRP +2.13%), in contrast, is down by 44%, due in large part to crypto market dysfunction and investors fleeing risky assets.
Over the next three years, it’s very conceivable that the leader of yesteryear could become the laggard if the dynamics affecting them today end up inverting. So which of these assets is going to be the better pick with an investment of $1,000, and why?
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Gold doesn’t need luck on its side to grow
For investors who prefer not to hold physical bullion to get exposure to gold, the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD 1.97%) or another gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) is a good option. No matter how you’re thinking of holding gold, the investment thesis for buying it is quite simple overall.
The structural forces behind the price of gold flying in this moment are geopolitical instability, fears of inflation, and global banks trying to shore up their holdings of hard assets while reducing their reliance on the dollar. That cocktail has driven prices for a couple of years already, and it shows little sign of reversing.
SPDR Gold Shares
Today’s Change
(-1.97%) $-9.36
Current Price
$466.88
Key Data Points
Day’s Range
$466.60 – $475.02
52wk Range
$272.58 – $509.70
Volume
12M
Over the long run, gold’s value is due to its scarcity and the nearly universal recognition that it’s a store of value. Neither of those factors are changing, but they don’t necessarily imply an acceleration of demand beyond the current levels. Gold is also obviously priced very expensively right now.
Still, over the next three years, gold’s trajectory looks like it’ll be pretty solid, and it doesn’t even need any specific catalysts for that to happen. It just needs the world to continue being unstable, which is practically guaranteed in the short term.
Realizing XRP’s upside might be complicated
XRP is a far riskier option than gold, and it’s probably not an advisable purchase unless you already have a crypto portfolio and you’re comfortable with the risks involved.
With that being said, XRP is a living project that’s being developed by its issuer, Ripple. It grows by attracting users and capital to its blockchain, the XRP Ledger (XRPL).
This is an incredibly different proposition compared to an investment in gold. While buying XRP is not at all the same as buying shares in a company, it does offer exposure to the growth, deployment, and upgrading of the XRPL, which is itself a financial technology platform.
Today’s Change
(2.13%) $0.03
Current Price
$1.40
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$86B
Day’s Range
$1.37 – $1.42
52wk Range
$1.14 – $3.65
Volume
2.4B
That means XRP can almost certainly provide more upside exposure than gold over the next three years by virtue of being able to change itself in response to external stimuli. It also guarantees a lot more downside risk, as XRP needs to continuously demonstrate real traction for investors to believe the coin is going to become valuable, or even for it to retain its value.
Therefore, if you don’t own either and want to invest $1,000, gold is probably the better option over the next three years. After that, it’s far more likely that XRP will end up outperforming it.