A sharp spike in oil prices triggered by the Middle East conflict has raised inflation concerns, but economists largely believe a US recession remains unlikely, unless crude rises significantly higher and stays elevated. According to a recent survey of 50 economists, the average threshold for recession risk crossing 50% is oil at around $138 per barrel, sustained for several weeks. Estimates varied widely, ranging from $90 to $200, with an average duration of about 14 weeks needed to trigger a downturn.
Can Oil Prices Stagnant at $138 Trigger a US Recession? Economists Weigh In
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