Optimism over a trade deal lifted risk appetite, but expectations of a more cautious Fed limited further upside. As US-China trade negotiations proceed, markets will also focus on the upcoming US CPI Report on June 11, which follows Friday’s mixed Jobs Report. A hotter inflation print may refuel stagflation fears and dent sentiment.
Near-Term Outlook
The DAX’s near-term outlook hinges on US inflation data, trade developments, and ECB policy cues.
- Bearish Scenario: Rising US inflation, renewed trade tensions, or hawkish ECB rhetoric could push the index toward 23,750.
- Bullish Scenario: A US-China trade deal, dovish ECB cues, and easing US-EU trade tensions drive it toward 24,500.
DAX Technical Indicators
Daily Chart
Despite Monday’s loss, the DAX remains above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), confirming a bullish trend.
A breakout above the June 4 record high of 24,346 would open the door to 24,500, with 24,750 as the next resistance level.
On the downside, a break below 24,000 may bring the 23,750 level into play, with 23,500 as the next major support level.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 60.53 indicates the DAX could climb to 24,500 before entering overbought conditions (RSI > 70).