Indian stock market: Indian benchmark stock indices edged up slightly on Tuesday, supported by positive cues from Asian markets and heightened investor focus on ongoing trade negotiations with the United States ahead of President Donald Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline.
Around 9:33 am, the BSE Sensex had gained 200 points, or 0.24%, to reach 83,807, while the Nifty50 was up by 66 points, or 0.26%, trading at 25,583.
“ Sustained weakness in the dollar ( dollar index now at 96.81) means the possibility of heavy selling by FIIs is low. They might even continue to buy despite high valuations. Going forward, the market is likely to be influenced by developments on the tariff front. An India-US trade deal will be positive and if it does not happen the market is likely to be impacted. The main market concern continues to be the poor earnings growth. There are no clear indications yet of strong recovery in earnings growth. Auto stocks will respond to today’s auto sales numbers,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.
Can Nifty 50, Sensex climb to a new peak in July 2025?
Historically, July has been a seasonally positive month for equities, and the current setup suggests the potential for this momentum can sustain although volatility may persist.
According to Ranju Rajan, Head of Managed Accounts, Axis Securities, the market is currently trading just 2–3% below its all-time high. If key triggers align positively, it offers potential extension of positive momentum/new high during the July–September 2025 quarter.
Several brokerages have forecast that the Nifty could approach or even surpass its previous peak this month. Pranay Aggarwal, Director and CEO, Stoxkart, said that investors should remain cautious of external risks such as potential volatility from global interest rate movements, trade-related developments, and increased IPO activity that could temporarily absorb liquidity.
“ Despite these headwinds, the broader market momentum, particularly in large-cap and small-cap segments, indicates a constructive outlook for the near term,” said Aggarwal.
Key Triggers to Watch in July 2025
Corporate Earnings (Q1 FY26 Results)
The tone of the quarterly earnings season is expected to be constructive, with strong domestic demand, margin stability, and select sector outperformance likely to support investor sentiment. Robust earnings delivery could act as a catalyst for further upside.
Tariff Decision (9th July Review)
The upcoming tariff extension deadline is a critical event. A status quo or favorable or neutral outcome (i.e., no negative surprises) may be viewed as an opportunity by the market, further reducing uncertainty and boosting risk appetite.
Bottom-up stock picking
As events unfold and quarterly results are supportive, specific sectors or stocks will showcase structural growth, which will continue to drive a bottom-up stock-picking approach. While short-term volatility may persist, this rotation is expected to keep the broader market buoyant.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.