Live: Will NVIDIA Crush Q4 Earnings Tonight?

NVIDIA’s conference call still has some questions left, but its likely shares won’t see significant movement.

As of right now, they’re up about 1%.

If you’re an NVIDIA investor, that might sound like a disappointment. After all, the company issued incredibly strong guidance of $78 billion against expectations of about $72 billion.

That’s a massive beat. I can see how investors might ask ‘if that can’t move NVIDIA’s shares, what can?’

But the story will be longer. In the coming weeks, expect a wave of Wall Street firms to adjust their models on NVIDIA and Fiscal 226 expectations to rise from $7.86 today to higher levels. As we’ve noted throughout the blog, we expect NVIDIA to make $9 to $10 in adjusted EPS this year.

As those expectations rise, it wouldn’t surprise us if NVIDIA shares rose in the weeks ahead even if tomorrow’s reaction is more muted.

Finally, if you haven’t had a chance to subscribe to the AI Investor Podcast, I strongly encourage you to do so. I host it every week and not only break down recent news in the space but also provie recommendations. Our average recommendation is up more than 100%!

Here’s the first exchange on NVIDIA’s conference call where Wall Street asked Jensen Huang about the hyperscaler $700 billion spending spree:

BofA Securities, Research Division

I think you mentioned that you now have growth visibility into calendar ’27 also, and I think your purchase commitments kind of reflect that confidence. But Jensen, I’m curious, when you look at your top cloud customers, cloud CapEx close to $700 billion this year, many investors are concerned that it would be harder for this level to grow into next year.

And for several of them, their cash flow generation capability is also getting compressed. So I know you’re very confident about your road map, right, and your purchase commitments and whatnot, but how confident are you about your customers’ ability to continue to grow their CapEx? And if their CapEx doesn’t grow can NVIDIA still find a way to grow in that envelope?

Chief Executive Officer

I am confident in their cash flow growing. And the reason for that is very simple. We have now seen the inflection of agentic AI and the usefulness of agents across the world and enterprises everywhere. You’re seeing incredible compute demand because of it. In this new world of AI, compute is revenues. Well, compute, there’s no way to generate tokens. Without tokens, there’s no way to grow revenues. So in this new world of AI compute equals revenues.

And I am certain that at this point with the productive use of Codex and Claude Code and the excitement around Claude CoWork and just the incredible enthusiasm about OpenClaw and the enterprise versions of them. All of the enterprise ISVs who are now working on agentic systems on top of their tools platforms. I am certain at this point that we are at the inflection point, we’ve reached the inflection point and we’re generating profitable tokens that are productive for customers and profitable for the cloud service providers. And so the simple logic of it, the simple way to think about it, is computing has changed.

What used to be software running on computers, modest amount of computers, call it, $300 billion or $400 billion worth of CapEx each year has now gone into AI and AI in order to have — in order to generate tokens, you need compute capacity. And that translates directly to growth and that translates directly to revenues.

Jensen Huang provided surprisingly brief comments on the call.

Without any new information on the call, shares are sliding. Now up only .5% despite the massive guidance beat.

How good is NVIDIA’s growth right now?

Charlie Bilello just had a great tweeet comparing growth rates of leading tech companies.

Q4 Revenue Growth, YoY % Change…
Nvidia $NVDA: +73%
Palantir $PLTR: +70%
AMD $AMD: +34%
Meta $META: +24%
Google $GOOGL: +18%
Netflix $NFLX: +18%
Microsoft $MSFT: +17%
Apple $AAPL: +16%
Amazon $AMZN: +14%
S&P 500 $SPY: +9%
Tesla $TSLA: -3%

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) February 25, 2026

If you can’t see that embed, here’s the comparison.

“Nvidia $NVDA: +73% Palantir $PLTR: +70% AMD $AMD: +34% Meta $META: +24% Google $GOOGL: +18% Netflix $NFLX: +18% Microsoft $MSFT: +17% Apple $AAPL: +16% Amazon $AMZN: +14% S&P 500 $SPY: +9% Tesla $TSLA: -3%”

NVIDIA is also on the low end of forward P/E multiples amongst the group despite the strongest growth rate.

NVIDIA’s CFO is finishing up. That means Jensen Huang is up next, we’ll see what kind of commentary he provides.

Shares are currently up 1.2%.

NVIDIA just gave an update on China in their conference call. Here’s what CFO Colette Kress had to say:

“While small amounts of H200 products for China-based customers were approved by the U.S. government, we have yet to generate any revenue. And we do not know whether any imports will be allowed into China.”

So, while NVIDIA does have approval from the US, they still haven’t been allowed into China. This generally matches media reports headed into earnings.

The demand clearly exists in China, but leadership in the country hasn’t made a decision on whether to allow NVIDIA chips in.

Shares are currently up 1.6% and have slipped slightly during the conference call so far.

We’re listening to NVIDIA’s conference call right now.

Generally, these calls start with a summary of what’s already known from the company’s earnings release.

One early note, CFO Colette Kress said the following:

“Agentic and physical AI applications built on increasingly smarter and multimodal models are beginning to drive our financial performance. On a full year basis, Data Center generated revenue of $194 billion, up 68% year-over-year. We have now scaled our Data Center business by nearly 13x since the emergence ChatGPT in fiscal 2023. We look ahead, we expect sequential revenue growth throughout calendar 2026. And exceeding what was included in the $500 billion Blackwell and Rubin revenue opportunity we shared last year. We believe we have inventory and supply commitments in place to address future demand, including shipments extending into calendar 2027. ”

This is an important quote because we thought the potential to revise the previously stated $500 billion upward with a firm number (IE – taking to $600 billion) could be a major catalyst for shares. However, so far, NVIDIA is saying they’ll exceed taht target, but with no updated figure.

NVIDIA’s conference call is starting. Once again, we’ll provide highlights and analysis. All you have to do is stay on this page and new updates will appear automatically.

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• First, 24/7 Wall St. posts live blogs on almost all major earnings. If you’ve enjoyed this, make sure to come back to the site for all your favorite stocks.
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We’ll continue posting updates.

NVIDIA’s conference call starts in less than 10 minutes. In our last update we provided some key areas to watch that could move the stock. 

Salesforce beat earnings soundly and is now down 5%.

Snowflake initially popped after strong earnings and is now down 2.5%.

Synopsys was initially up 3% after announcing earnings and is now down 4%.

It’s another brutal reaction for stocks in the software space.

NVIDIA shares are fading a little bit the past few minutes, but are still up 2% after blowout guidance.

We’re now more than 10 minutes past NVIDIA’s earnings release and gains are holding at about 3%.

We’d expect them to hold in this range until NVIDIA’s earnings call.

One of the biggest stories to watch on their conference call will be whether NVIDIA provides on update on their ‘visibility’ of $500 billion in Blackwell and Rubin sales through the end of calendar 2026.

Another area that could move shares is what the company says about sales to China.

As a reminder, NVIDIA’s blowout guidance of $78 billion assumed no sales to China. 

Here’s what NVIDIA’s CFO had to say about hyperscaler spending:

“Data Center revenue for the fourth quarter was a record $62.3 billion, up 75% from a year ago and up 22% sequentially, driven by the major platform shifts – accelerated computing and AI. For the fourth quarter, hyperscaler revenue increased and remained our largest customer category at slightly over 50% of Data Center revenue, while growth was led by the rest of our Data Center customers as revenue diversified.”

High-end of guidance implies NVIDIA will grow at 79% from last year.

The question is whether these earnings are so good they’ll lead to a re-rating in the coming weeks as Wall Street races to bring Fiscal 2027 EPS expectations up.

Headed into earnings Wall Street expected $7.86.

We have argued over and over on 24/7 Wall St. that we see NVIDIA generating $9 to $10 in adjusted EPS in the upcoming year.

If NVIDIA is growing at rates that are nearly double, its hard to imagine the stock continuing to trade at about 20X forward earnings if Wall Street continues to move their expectations for 2027 up.

NVIDIA shares remain up more than 3%, and its due to guidance that beat Wall Street expectations and ‘whisper numbers.’

Here’s some other areas to highlight:

• Networking grew 34% quarter-over-quarter. That’s higher than Data Center’s 19% sequential growth.
• Guidance of $78 billion trounces Wall Street expectations of $72 billion. That’s NVIDIA’s strongest guidance beat in awhile.
• Importantly, this guidance assume NO revenue from China, making the beat even more impressive. 

NVIDIA shares have once again broken $200 per share.

Mintues after reporting earnings they’re trading for a little more than $201 per share, up a little more than 3%.

We still don’t see NVIDIA’s earnings which were expected 10 minutes ago. 

Don’t trust numbers you see online, when numbers are out, we will report them immediately.

Stay on this page and we will update the moment earnings release. 

We’re seeing some numbers for NVIDIA’s earnings circulating online. However, we believe they’re fake as we still haven’t seen their actual earnings.

Stay tuned, we’ll keep updating this blog.

We expect NVIDIA earnings at 4:20 p.m. ET, so we’re just minutes away from the results. 

As a reminder, stay on this page and updates will appear automatically. We expect to deliver more than a dozen updates in the next half hour.

The market has now closed. As a reminder, we don’t expect NVIDIA to report earnings until 4:20 p.m. ET.

Salesforce reported. Shares immediately jumped 3%. EPS of $3.81 crushed expectations. Revenue narrowly beat.

However, shares are down 2.4%.

Another company NVIDIA investors will be interested in is Synopsys. NVIDIA invested $2 billion in the company last quarter. The company soundly beat earnings last quarter and shares are up 2.2%.

You can follow our live earnings here.

We’ve been updating this live blog for over an hour, you can see prior updates below.

NVIDIA’s earnings are now about 25 minutes away. We expect them to hit newswires at 4:20 p.m. ET.

Here’s everything you need to be prepared for NVIDIA’s earnings:

• What Wall Street Expects Last Quarter: Current estimates for revenue last quarter sit at $66.23 billion in revenue and adjusted EPS of $1.54. Gross margin expectations are at 75.04%.
• What Guidance Wall Street Expects: The bigger reaction after NVIDIA reports will likely come from what guidance the company offers. Wall Street expects Q1 revenue of $72.03 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.68.

As we’ve noted throughout this live blog, the ‘whisper numbers’ for guidance have been growing in recent days, which is a part of NVIDIA’s shares rallying.

NVIDIA shares are up another 2% today. It’s likely that for NVIDIA to rise tomorrow, guidance will need to be in the range of $74 billion to $75 billion in revenue or above.

As we’ve noted, one big question around guidance is whether the company will include China revenue. If NVIDIA explicitly states they’re not forecasting China revenue, there would be a positive reaction with lower guidance.

Finally, if you’re an NVIDIA investor or interested in AI, make sure to check out our AI Investor Podcast before earnings. On the last episode, I added $25,000 of NVIDIA shares to a portfolio of AI stocks we managed. If you want to hear my explanation why I’m buying more NVIDIA, you can go to 29:10 in the video below.

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Prediction markets continue pricing in about 93% odds that NVIDIA beats earnings when they report in about 50 minutes.

According to data from S&P Capital IQ, the last time NVIDIA missed earnings expectations was November, 2022.

We’d place a heavy bet prediction markets have this one called and NVIDIA will likely deliver adjusted EPS in the zone of $1.55 to $1.60 last quarter. Of course, Wall Street will be watching the company’s guidance most closely.

Wall Street’s expectations for Q1 guidance stand at $72.03 billion. However, buy-side expectations (what’s often called the ‘whisper number’) have been rising and likely sit at closer to $74 to $75 billion.

We are less than one hour away from the market closing, and then it’ll be time for the biggest event of earnings season.

As I noted earlier in this live blog, in yesterday’s episode of the AI Investor Podcast, I announced I’d be investing another $25,000 into NVIDIA’s stock. If you want to see our full list of recommendations, you can find it here.

Our first buy of NVIDIA was the portfolio’s first recommendation on September 12th, 2024. So far, that pick is up 66%. That’s actually below the portfolio’s average recommendation gain of 106%.

Recently, I posted some numbers behind how NVIDIA’s shares could begin a march toward $300 per share.

In an article published on February 19th titled ‘The Best Stock to Buy with $1,000: Why NVIDIA is a Steal,’ I put some numbers behind how big NVIDIA’s year could get. Here’s what I had to say:

“Let’s talk about NVIDIA’s 2026. Currently, the stock trades for about $186 per share. NVIDIA’s current value is roughly $4.5 trillion, and the company had $99 billion in profits in the past year. That’s a trailing P/E of 46X.

On the surface, that looks like an outrageously expensive multiple to pay for a stock as big as NVIDIA.

Yet, looking ahead, we find Wall Street expects NVIDIA to generate $7.76 in profits across the next year, which would be about 65% growth from this year. My bold call, NVIDIA will do closer to $9 per share in profits, and it’s not unimaginable the company could generate $10 in earnings per share.

The math is pretty simple: if NVIDIA does get to $10 per share in profits (my most bullish case), it would be trading at about 18.6X this year’s earnings while more than doubling profits. 

Generally, when stocks are experiencing this level of earnings growth, they ‘re-rate,’ that is to say they trade at higher multiples. Applying a 30X multiple to NVIDIA, we’d find the stock would trade at $270 per share if they hit $9 in EPS this year or $300 per share if they hit $10 in EPS.

That means, NVIDIA shares – even after their incredible run the past decade – could still see 45% or more upside potential this year. On a $1,000 buy, that could be worth $450 in profits. On a $10,000 buy, it would be worth $4,500 in profits.”

We’re taking questions that we’ll answer on this live blog. Simply respond to my post on X with any questions, and we’ll do our best to answer them.

Here’s one of our first questions:

How does Nvidia’s relationship with China impact future opportunities?

— ProShopGuyMF (Mike McMahon) (@ProShopGuyMF1) February 25, 2026

If you can’t read the embedded post, here it is:

“How does Nvidia’s relationship with China impact future opportunities?”

China is one of the biggest questions heading into tonight’s earnings. Here’s what NVIDIA had to say about China on its most recent earnings call:

“The Hopper platform in its 13th quarter since inception, recorded approximately $2 billion in revenue in Q3. H20 sales were approximately $50 million, sizable purchase orders never materialized in the quarter due to geopolitical issues and the increasingly competitive market in China. While we were disappointed in the current state that prevents us from shipping more competitive data center compute products to China, we are committed to continued engagement with the U.S. and China governments and will continue to advocate for America’s ability to compete around the world.”

The company’s guidance for this quarter ($65 billion in revenue) assumes no revenue from China. During the quarter, the U.S. approved export-compliant sales to China. However, sales have been held up by whether the Chinese government would allow companies to purchase chips from NVIDIA. 

It’s a complicated situation, with Commerce Department officials saying this week that no H200 chips had been shipped to China. 

So, back to ProShopGuyMF’s original question…

The biggest question of how China could impact NVIDIA’s opportunities now hinges on whether China’s government will allow companies to purchase chips. There’s been some talk of approving orders, but only balanced against orders to domestic suppliers. 

If NVIDIA’s chips were flowing into China, it’s likely the country would contribute $50 billion in revenue annually. With Wall Street expecting $330 billion in sales in the upcoming year, that would be a major addition. 

We’ll see what kind of guidance NVIDIA gives for China tonight. It could be a major swing factor in how Wall Street analyzes tonight’s earnings. For example, $75 billion guidance for next quarter, with the note that number still doesn’t include any sales to China would be looked at very differently than similar guidance with material sales to China baked in.

What’s the story of NVIDIA’s stock movements the past six months.

$NVDA price has dislocated from earnings in recent months GS pic.twitter.com/9M3hJseAvm

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) February 25, 2026

If you can’t see the embed, I’ve placed the picture below.

The key idea here, NVIDIA’s share price has been closely tracking forward EPS estimates since the beginning of the AI boom (December 2022). However, since November that relationship has broken. NVIDIA has traded sideways while EPS estimates kept rising.

If NVIDIA delivers strong guidance tonight, it could lead to this chart once again converging where price gains outpace Wall Street raising forward estimates of NVIDIA’s profitability.

If you want to listen to NVIDIA’s earnings call, you can register here.

Our updates will likely slow as we’ll be listening to NVIDIA’s call as well. However, we will continue posting updates. 

You don’t want to miss NVIDIA’s earnings as Jensen Huang paints a very clear picture of opportunities. We will post highlights here.

All you have to do to get the highlights and get the news on any information that moves the stock, is simply leave this page open and new updates will post automatically. 

NVIDIA earnings just hit newswires. Here’s the key figures:

• Revenue: $68.13 billion (beat)
• EPS: $1.62 (beat) 
• Data Center: $62 billion

As a reminder, here’s what Wall Street expected:

• Revenue: $66.2 billion
• Adjusted EPS: $1.54
• Gross Margin: 75.04%
• Free Cash Flow: $33.9 billion

And here’s Q1’s guidance. 

• Revenue: $$76.44B TO $79.56B

That’s above expectations of $72 billion.

Shares are immediately up 2.2% in reaction. We’ll continue updating. 

Welcome to our NVIDIA earnings live blog. Here are a few notes:

• New updates will appear automatically. Simply stay on this page and they’ll load here.
• We expect NVIDIA to report earnings at 4:20 p.m. ET. The moment they’re announced, we’ll begin updating this blog with analysis on why the stock is moving and key storylines.

As a short introduction, my name’s Eric Bleeker and I host 24/7 Wall St.’s AI Investor Podcast. I have followed NVIDIA for nearly 20 years and have named NVIDIA my top buy recommendation as far back as 2009.

In the latest episode of the AI Investor Podcast, I recommended another $25,000 buy in NVIDIA. I’ve embedded the episode below if you’d like to see why I’m recommending buying it again. The NVIDIA segment begins at 29:10.

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