Social Security turns 90 this year and now faces a critical financial threat. According to new analysis from the Pew Research Center, the program’s retirement trust fund could be depleted by 2033. If that happens, retirees would see an immediate 21% reduction in their monthly benefits — unless Congress intervenes.
The growing shortfall stems from a simple but serious problem: more Americans are retiring than entering the workforce to replace them.
An aging population puts strain on the system
As of April 2025, 73.9 million Americans — more than one in five U.S. residents — receive Social Security benefits. This group includes:
- 52.6 million retired workers
- 7.2 million disabled workers
- 5.8 million survivors of deceased workers
- 7.4 million receiving Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Among older Americans, Social Security reaches nearly everyone. For example, by 2022, over 92% of people aged 75 and older received some type of Social Security payment.
However, the system relies on payroll taxes from current workers. In 1965, the program had four workers for every beneficiary. Today, that number has dropped to just 2.7 workers per recipient. Projections show the ratio could fall to 2.1 by 2100 if current trends continue.
How Social Security is funded — and where it falls short
The program draws its funding from a 12.4% payroll tax, split evenly between workers and employers. In 2023, about 183 million Americans contributed to Social Security — roughly 93% of the U.S. workforce.
Despite this, the program ran a shortfall. That year:
- Social Security collected $1.35 trillion in revenue
- It paid out $1.38 trillion in benefits
- The resulting gap reached $70.4 billion, and it continues to grow
Unlike retirement benefits, the disability portion of Social Security remains financially stable. However, the retirement trust fund has begun cashing in its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds to cover the gap between incoming revenue and outgoing payments.
What happens when the trust fund runs out?
If the trust fund runs dry in 2033, Social Security will still receive payroll tax revenue. But without reserves, it could only pay about 79% of scheduled benefits, according to the latest projections.
In other words, retirees would face a nearly one-fifth cut to their monthly checks unless lawmakers take action.
What can be done to fix it?
Several policy options could close the funding gap. These include:
- Increasing payroll tax rates
- Raising or eliminating the income cap subject to payroll taxes
- Adjusting the retirement age
- Modifying the benefit formula or cost-of-living adjustments
Although lawmakers from both parties have floated ideas, none have passed. This is partly because Social Security remains popular across the political spectrum. In fact, a 2024 Pew Research Center survey found that 79% of Americans oppose any cuts to the program.
Why the system matters to so many Americans
Social Security provides crucial financial support for tens of millions of people. In 2022:
- 63.2% of adult recipients relied on Social Security for at least half their income
- 43.6% received three-quarters or more of their income from the program
- 27% had no other income at all
For many, Social Security prevents poverty. Only 7.8% of recipients lived below the poverty line, compared to 9.7% of those who did not receive benefits.
The path forward
While the retirement trust fund faces a looming deadline, there is still time to act. Lawmakers could enact changes now to avoid future benefit cuts, but delay raises the stakes. The longer Congress waits, the more difficult and disruptive those changes may become.
Ultimately, Social Security remains a pillar of retirement security in the United States. Protecting it — and modernizing it — will be essential for the next generation of workers and retirees alike.