“Only about $30-$40 per share in that business.”
That curt assessment comes from five-star analyst Jed Dorsheimer of William Blair, highlighting just how differently the market now views Tesla stock.
Although EVs still generate the lion’s share of its sales (over 75% in Q3), Dorsheimer feels that investors value Tesla more like an AI and robotics player.
Recent gains in Tesla stock are reflective of that shift.
For perspective, Tesla stock has risen a remarkable 48% over the past six months and 14.3% in the past month alone.
Consequently, Tesla stock is now trading at over 380 times forward GAAP earnings, a dizzying 1,820% higher than the sector median.
Additionally, it trades at over 17 times forward sales estimates, which is roughly 1,672% higher than the sector median.
Following its superb run-up, Wall Street consensus estimates point to a 15.3% downside, to $395.73, expecting a bumpy road ahead for the stock.
Those gains point to a growing optimism around Tesla’s potent robotaxi division, full self-driving progress, and its much-talked-about Optimus robot, which has helped shift the narrative away from the sluggishness in its EV division.
Naturally, that creates a clear disconnect that the investing world just can’t ignore.
Hence, Tesla’s valuation is tied to future breakthroughs. However, its bottom-line health is still dependent on what has become a highly regulated, competitive auto market, creating an obvious dichotomy.
Dorsheimer isn’t approaching Tesla stock through the lens we’ve grown accustomed to over the years, and that difference matters.
According to TipRanks, William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer is a five-star analyst who is ranked #308 out of 10,192 Wall Street analysts, positioning him at the top tier of all tracked analysts.
Dorsheimer’s calls have generated an average return of +26.9% per rating, underscoring strong upside capture when he’s right.
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In his analysis, Tesla’s valuation quietly moved away from its hugely popular vehicle business toward longer-term (some would say moon-shot) bets in autonomy and energy.
Therefore, if we encounter an uninspiring quarterly delivery report or pricing issues, the stock is unlikely to react in the same manner as it did in the past.
He believes Tesla is in the midst of a strategic transition, with investor interest focused on full self-driving technology, robotics, and a growing energy platform.
Dorsheimer offered further detail on Yahoo Finance.
In Dorsheimer’s model, autonomy currently accounts for approximately 70% of Tesla’s value, where execution on future technologies becomes all the more important.
“If you value Tesla as an auto company, it’s just the wrong framework,” CEO Elon Musk shared in Tesla’s Q1 2024 earnings call from last year.
Related: History of Tesla & its stock: Timeline, facts & milestones
The shift in how Tesla stock is valued isn’t limited to a single analyst.
Across Wall Street, Tesla is being modeled more as a portfolio of future technologies instead of an EV giant.
Although differences over the upside remain, the common thread is virtually the same, in that Tesla’s car business plays a shrinking role.
Related: Veteran analyst makes jaw-dropping call on Tesla stock
Additionally, a significant portion of Tesla’s non-automotive promise is already reflected in the stock price, offering virtually no margin for error.
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Bank of America employs a sum-of-the-parts model, assigning 45% of Tesla’s value to Robotaxis, 17% to Full Self-Driving, and 19% to Optimus. In comparison, it assigns just 12% for core automotive, describing the setup as mostly “stretched.”
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Morgan Stanley concurs with BofA and has reduced the weight of the auto business (valued at $55 per share), with a focus on network services, Robotaxis, and humanoid robots. Additionally, it raised its price target on the stock to $425 from $410 while downgrading it, arguing that much of the upside from non-auto initiatives is already priced in.
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Goldman Sachs remains neutral while framing autonomy as Tesla’s key growth engine. Its caution mainly centers on its bottom line, with competition and regulation likely to cap margin growth.
Related: Facebook makes daring move to challenge Disney, Netflix
This story was originally published by TheStreet on Dec 18, 2025, where it first appeared in the Investing section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.