Notably, as per the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (April 2025), India’s real GDP growth for 2025-26 is pegged at 6.2%, 30 basis points lower than its previous forecast in January 2025. However, India is still expected to be the fastest-growing major economy and faced the least amount of cuts among other global economies.
According to the ministry, the revisions can be attributed to the higher levels of global uncertainties and trade tensions. “Multiple agencies project India’s growth to be in the range of 6.3 – 6.7 per cent in FY26, supported by robust domestic fundamentals, stable macroeconomic management, and growing government capital expenditure, while declining inflation strengthens this outlook.”
As of April 2025, the ministry highlights, the Indian economy has seen robust domestic fundamentals, prudent macroeconomic management, and a capacity to withstand external shocks. The government’s inflation outlook also remains optimistic, supported by low core inflation and a decline in food prices. “Going forward, inflationary pressures stemming from food items are expected to remain low on account of a good rabi harvest, an increase in the area sown under summer crops, and healthy buffer stocks of foodgrains.”