While traders closely monitor US-China trade headlines, the US government shutdown remains another XRP headwind.
US Government Shutdown: A 12th Senate Vote Fails to Advance GOP Bill
The US government shutdown extended to day 22 on Wednesday, October 22, as the Senate impasse continued. A 12th Senate vote on a stopgap funding bill, 54-46, fell short of the 60 votes needed to reopen the government. The shutdown is now the second-longest in history, behind the 2018-2019 shutdown during Trump’s first presidency.
Why does the US government shutdown affect XRP price trends?
The Senate stalemate means that the SEC is working under a skeleton staff, delaying reviews and approvals. The lack of agency manpower means that XRP-spot ETF launches will face delays until the US government reopens.
The absence of highly anticipated institutional money inflows into XRP-spot ETFs has weighed on sentiment. XRP-spot ETF issuers may get an SEC greenlight 3-4 weeks after a reopening, raising the possibility of December launches. Crucially, the longer the shutdown, the larger the agency’s backlog, and the greater the delay to the launch of spot ETFs.
Bloomberg Intelligence ETF Analyst James Seyffart commented on the potential timeframe for the SEC to green-light spot ETFs, stating:
“Quick update on crypto ETF delays from shutdown: Expect 3-4 weeks post-reopening for batch approvals on XRP, SOL, LTC filings. SEC’s backlog is ~90 items, but streamlined S-1 process means no full re-review needed. XRP odds still 85% by EOY—don’t panic, this is procedural lag, not rejection.”
Price Action & Technical Analysis: Will XRP Breach $2.2?
XRP fell 2.4% on Wednesday, October 22, following the previous day’s 2.95% loss, closing at $2.3660. The token underperformed the broader crypto market, which declined 0.92%. The pullback left XRP trading well below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), reaffirming a bearish bias.
Key technical levels to watch include:
- Support levels: $2.2, $2.0, and $1.9.
- Technical resistance levels: the 200-day EMA at $2.6125 and the 50-day EMA at $2.7069.
- Resistance levels: $2.4, $2.7, and $3.0.
Catalysts & Scenarios
In the coming sessions, several scenarios could influence near-term price trends:
- US-China trade headlines.
- The US government shutdown
- XRP-spot ETFs (delays or launches) and BlackRock’s position on an iShares XRP Trust.
- Blue-chip companies’ appetite for XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
- Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the Market Structure Bill, and SWIFT-related news could also drive near-term price trends.
Bearish Scenario: Risks Below $2.2
- BlackRock downplays plans for an XRP-spot ETF.
- US stalemate continues, delaying XRP-spot ETF launches.
- The US Senate roadblocks crypto-friendly legislation, including the Market Structure Bill.
- Blue-chip companies dismiss XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
- OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.
- SWIFT holds its market share in the global remittance sector, limiting Ripple’s market access.
These bearish events could push XRP toward the $2.2 level. A break below $2.2 may bring the $2.0 psychological support level into play.
Bullish Scenario: Path to $3
- The US and China reach a trade agreement.
- The US government reopens
- BlackRock files an S-1 for an iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC approves XRP-spot ETFs.
- Blue-chip companies adopt XRP for treasury purposes, and firms integrate Ripple technology.
- Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the Market Structure Bill progresses on Capitol Hill.
- XRPL makes progress on Main Street, challenging SWIFT’s market dominance.
These bullish scenarios could send XRP above the $2.4 level, bringing $2.7 into sight. A sustained move through $2.7 would pave the way toward $3.0.